By Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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Extra resources for BIS Papers No 36 New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability. Proceedings of a joint meeting organised by the BIS and the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta in Mexico City, May 2007
2% of GDP, respectively. 0 Latin America Emerging Asia Emerging Europe For a list of countries included see Figure 1. 1 As a percentage of the region’s GDP; includes all countries of each region according to the World Bank classification. Source: World Bank (2007), World Development Indicators. Clearly, global remittance flows are on the rise. Yet these flows tend to grow faster and represent on average a greater share of the economy in Latin America than in other emerging regions. As Figure 9 shows, the World Bank estimates that for 1995–2005, remittances as a percentage of GDP grew 133% in Latin America, 89% in emerging Europe and 72% in emerging Asia.
Factors underlying procyclicality in macroeconomic policies Several factors can cause procyclicality in macroeconomic policies and limit their space to conduct countercyclical policies. Without trying to be exhaustive, we discuss in this section three factors we consider to be of major importance: the pass-through of capital account volatility to the domestic business cycle, including through policy responses; the macroeconomic effects of financial liberalisation in a context of underdeveloped domestic financial markets; and the institutional framework and restrictive rules guiding fiscal and monetary policies.
1 Capital account volatility and procyclical policy responses International capital flows to developing countries have been volatile and a major source of macroeconomic instability. Both the availability and the cost of external financing ease during periods of economic expansion, whereas during downswings they tighten and become more expensive. As is well known, two medium-term cycles in capital flows had a strong impact on stability and growth in many countries (UN (2005), pp 74–5; UNCTAD (1999), Ch IV).
BIS Papers No 36 New financing trends in Latin America: a bumpy road towards stability. Proceedings of a joint meeting organised by the BIS and the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta in Mexico City, May 2007 by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta